Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. McDavid wins 45.3% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.9% vs Gourde 46.0% (+2.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 72.4%
Defensive zone
Gourde 68.4%
Neutral zone
Gourde 51.7%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 72.4%
72.4%
27.6%
McDavid
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
McDavid
Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
McDavid
Gourde
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (650)
47.2% (654)
+0.3%
Power Play
48.6% (72)
45.0% (20)
+3.6%
Penalty Kill
46.5% (43)
32.2% (87)
+14.3%
On penalty kill, McDavid has a +14.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. McDavid is 45.3% vs left-shot opponents (554).
McDavid shoots left. Gourde is 46.3% vs left-shot opponents (501).
Home / Away
McDavid
Gourde
Home
50.2% (400)
44.1% (322)
Away
44.7% (365)
46.5% (439)
By Period
McDavid
Gourde
P1
47.5%
42.4%
P2
48.6%
49.8%
P3
46.7%
44.3%
OT
33.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
51.3%
49.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.6%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
45.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | 3 | 01:52 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 2 | 05:28 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |