Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +9.4% FO% edge overall. McMichael wins 43.5% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McMichael 44.5% vs Larkin 52.1% (-9.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McMichael 59.4%
Defensive zone
McMichael 57.2%
Neutral zone
McMichael 53.7%
Result
Connor McMichael favored at 56.0%
56.0%
44.0%
McMichael
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
McMichael
Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
McMichael
Larkin
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
0
1
McMichael
Larkin
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McMichael
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
43.1% (339)
51.8% (903)
-8.7%
Power Play
50.0% (4)
56.0% (225)
-6.0%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (2)
47.4% (76)
-47.4%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +47.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. McMichael is 43.5% vs left-shot opponents (223).
McMichael shoots left. Larkin is 52.6% vs left-shot opponents (721).
Home / Away
McMichael
Larkin
Home
42.7% (178)
55.6% (662)
Away
43.1% (167)
48.3% (542)
By Period
McMichael
Larkin
P1
40.7%
49.9%
P2
50.0%
52.7%
P3
36.9%
53.0%
Final 5 min
43.8%
49.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McMichael
34.0%▼
45.0%
42.9%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27, 2021 | 3 | 13:06 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 27, 2021 | 3 | 02:03 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 27, 2021 | 1 | 13:29 | Defensive | Connor McMichael |