Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +13.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). McMichael wins 45.9% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McMichael 43.2% vs Larkin 55.0% (-13.0%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 14-7 in 21 meetings
Offensive zone
McMichael 90.5%
Defensive zone
McMichael 89.6%
Neutral zone
McMichael 87.5%
Result
Connor McMichael favored at 88.8%
88.8%
11.2%
McMichael
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
14
(21 meetings)
7
14
McMichael
Larkin
Last 10: McMichael 3-7 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
3
3
McMichael
Larkin
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
0
4
McMichael
Larkin
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
4
7
McMichael
Larkin
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McMichael
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
43.4% (761)
55.9% (943)
-12.5%
Power Play
40.7% (59)
57.4% (244)
-16.7%
Penalty Kill
30.8% (52)
46.2% (106)
-15.4%
On power play, Larkin has a +16.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. McMichael is 45.9% vs left-shot opponents (591).
McMichael shoots left. Larkin is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (825).
Home / Away
McMichael
Larkin
Home
42.1% (444)
56.0% (654)
Away
42.8% (428)
54.8% (639)
By Period
McMichael
Larkin
P1
42.5%
54.4%
P2
41.9%
55.9%
P3
42.5%
55.2%
OT
100.0%
64.0%
Final 5 min
39.7%
53.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McMichael
34.0%▼
45.0%
42.4%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 9, 2024 | 3 | 07:37 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 3 | 07:30 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 2 | 15:23 | Offensive | Connor McMichael |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 2 | 06:48 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 1 | 19:49 | Offensive | Connor McMichael |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 1 | 10:14 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McMichael |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 2 | 19:58 | Offensive | Connor McMichael |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 2 | 17:29 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 2 | 12:56 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 2 | 00:06 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McMichael |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 1 | 06:54 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 27, 2024 | 2 | 16:38 | Neutral | Connor McMichael |
| Feb 27, 2024 | 2 | 03:27 | Neutral | Connor McMichael |
| Feb 27, 2024 | 1 | 16:20 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |