Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +9.9% FO% edge overall. McMichael wins 44.4% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McMichael 43.8% vs Larkin 52.4% (-9.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McMichael 54.5%
Defensive zone
McMichael 58.4%
Neutral zone
McMichael 54.8%
Result
Connor McMichael favored at 54.5%
54.5%
45.5%
McMichael
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
McMichael
Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
0
1
McMichael
Larkin
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McMichael
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
42.4% (399)
51.7% (878)
-9.3%
Power Play
49.1% (55)
58.5% (246)
-9.4%
Penalty Kill
40.6% (96)
48.2% (166)
-7.6%
On power play, Larkin has a +9.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. McMichael is 44.4% vs left-shot opponents (367).
McMichael shoots left. Larkin is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (839).
Home / Away
McMichael
Larkin
Home
43.0% (298)
52.4% (647)
Away
42.5% (252)
52.7% (643)
By Period
McMichael
Larkin
P1
46.5%
52.2%
P2
41.1%
53.1%
P3
41.3%
51.7%
Final 5 min
44.0%
55.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McMichael
34.0%▼
45.0%
42.7%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 13:42 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |