Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +9.9% FO% edge overall. McMichael wins 44.6% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McMichael 44.2% vs Larkin 52.7% (-9.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 50.5%
Defensive zone
McMichael 53.5%
Neutral zone
McMichael 51.1%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 50.5%
49.5%
50.5%
McMichael
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
McMichael
Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
0
1
McMichael
Larkin
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McMichael
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
42.8% (367)
52.4% (773)
-9.6%
Power Play
51.0% (49)
58.6% (220)
-7.6%
Penalty Kill
38.9% (72)
47.3% (146)
-8.4%
On even strength, Larkin has a +9.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. McMichael is 44.6% vs left-shot opponents (332).
McMichael shoots left. Larkin is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (762).
Home / Away
McMichael
Larkin
Home
43.4% (267)
51.9% (615)
Away
42.5% (221)
54.2% (524)
By Period
McMichael
Larkin
P1
46.2%
52.3%
P2
41.3%
53.2%
P3
42.3%
52.6%
Final 5 min
42.9%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McMichael
50.0%▲
45.5%
43.0%
Larkin
50.0%▬
50.0%
52.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 13:42 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |