Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +7.7% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McMichael 48.3% vs Larkin 54.2% (-7.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McMichael 59.9%
Defensive zone
Larkin 52.7%
Neutral zone
McMichael 56.0%
Result
Connor McMichael favored at 54.4%
54.4%
45.6%
McMichael
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
McMichael
Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McMichael
1
0
McMichael
Larkin
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
0
1
McMichael
Larkin
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
0
1
McMichael
Larkin
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McMichael
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
43.7% (71)
52.6% (1,117)
-8.9%
Power Play
52.4% (21)
60.7% (305)
-8.3%
Penalty Kill
52.9% (17)
55.9% (177)
-3.0%
On even strength, Larkin has a +8.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. McMichael is 48.6% vs left-shot opponents (70).
McMichael shoots left. Larkin is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,032).
Home / Away
McMichael
Larkin
Home
42.6% (54)
54.7% (783)
Away
50.9% (55)
54.3% (816)
By Period
McMichael
Larkin
P1
42.9%
55.9%
P2
40.5%
56.1%
P3
57.1%
51.1%
OT
50.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
55.2%
51.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McMichael
34.0%▼
45.0%
46.8%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2025 | 1 | 05:49 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 7, 2025 | 2 | 18:36 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 7, 2025 | 2 | 18:15 | Offensive | Connor McMichael |