Connor McMichael vs Dylan Larkin
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +9.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on defensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings). McMichael wins 45.2% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McMichael 43.3% vs Larkin 52.7% (-9.8%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 19-9 in 28 meetings
Offensive zone
McMichael 94.7%
Defensive zone
McMichael 89.2%
Neutral zone
McMichael 92.1%
Result
Connor McMichael favored at 92.2%
92.2%
7.8%
McMichael
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
19
(28 meetings)
9
19
McMichael
Larkin
Last 10: McMichael 2-8 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
4
4
McMichael
Larkin
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
6
McMichael
Larkin
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
4
9
McMichael
Larkin
13 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McMichael
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
43.1% (1,574)
51.7% (9,019)
-8.6%
Power Play
46.0% (139)
58.5% (2,125)
-12.5%
Penalty Kill
38.3% (167)
50.2% (1,122)
-11.9%
On power play, Larkin has a +12.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. McMichael is 45.2% vs left-shot opponents (1,252).
McMichael shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,850).
Home / Away
McMichael
Larkin
Home
42.6% (976)
54.0% (6,238)
Away
43.3% (904)
51.3% (6,028)
By Period
McMichael
Larkin
P1
43.3%
52.7%
P2
43.2%
53.1%
P3
41.9%
52.1%
OT
75.0%
58.4%
Final 5 min
42.8%
53.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McMichael
34.0%▼
45.0%
42.9%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 13:42 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 18, 2025 | 1 | 05:49 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 7, 2025 | 2 | 18:36 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 7, 2025 | 2 | 18:15 | Offensive | Connor McMichael |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 3 | 07:37 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 3 | 07:30 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 2 | 15:23 | Offensive | Connor McMichael |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 2 | 06:48 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 1 | 19:49 | Offensive | Connor McMichael |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 1 | 10:14 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McMichael |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 2 | 19:58 | Offensive | Connor McMichael |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 2 | 17:29 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 2 | 12:56 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 2 | 00:06 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McMichael |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 1 | 06:54 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |