Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +7.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Frost on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). McMichael wins 45.9% vs left-shot opponents — Frost shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McMichael 43.2% vs Frost 49.5% (-7.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McMichael 81.6%
Defensive zone
McMichael 88.0%
Neutral zone
McMichael 81.5%
Result
Connor McMichael favored at 83.1%
83.1%
16.9%
McMichael
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
7
(8 meetings)
1
7
McMichael
Frost
Last 8: McMichael 1-7 Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
0
4
McMichael
Frost
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
McMichael
Frost
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Frost
0
2
McMichael
Frost
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McMichael
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
43.4% (761)
48.6% (704)
-5.2%
Power Play
40.7% (59)
55.7% (115)
-15.0%
Penalty Kill
30.8% (52)
25.0% (4)
+5.8%
On power play, Frost has a +15.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. McMichael is 45.9% vs left-shot opponents (591).
McMichael shoots left. Frost is 46.7% vs left-shot opponents (492).
Home / Away
McMichael
Frost
Home
42.1% (444)
49.9% (399)
Away
42.8% (428)
49.1% (424)
By Period
McMichael
Frost
P1
42.5%
51.2%
P2
41.9%
53.9%
P3
42.5%
42.7%
OT
100.0%
40.0%
Final 5 min
39.7%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McMichael
34.0%▼
45.0%
42.4%
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
49.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16, 2024 | 2 | 02:36 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Apr 16, 2024 | 1 | 06:52 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Apr 16, 2024 | 1 | 02:07 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 1, 2024 | 2 | 15:26 | Defensive | Connor McMichael |
| Mar 1, 2024 | 2 | 07:16 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 1, 2024 | 1 | 14:51 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 1, 2024 | 1 | 05:00 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 1, 2024 | 1 | 03:35 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |