Scouting Report
Sam Reinhart holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Reinhart on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). McMichael wins 35.2% vs right-shot opponents — Reinhart shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McMichael 43.2% vs Reinhart 45.1% (-1.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McMichael 59.6%
Defensive zone
McMichael 54.5%
Neutral zone
McMichael 59.7%
Result
Connor McMichael favored at 57.4%
57.4%
42.6%
McMichael
Reinhart
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
McMichael
Reinhart
Last 7: McMichael 2-5 Reinhart
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Reinhart
1
3
McMichael
Reinhart
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Reinhart
1
2
McMichael
Reinhart
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McMichael
Reinhart
Edge
Even Strength
43.4% (761)
44.6% (345)
-1.2%
Power Play
40.7% (59)
43.3% (97)
-2.6%
Penalty Kill
30.8% (52)
43.2% (88)
-12.4%
On penalty kill, Reinhart has a +12.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Reinhart shoots right. McMichael is 35.2% vs right-shot opponents (281).
McMichael shoots left. Reinhart is 43.5% vs left-shot opponents (441).
Home / Away
McMichael
Reinhart
Home
42.1% (444)
47.9% (267)
Away
42.8% (428)
40.3% (263)
By Period
McMichael
Reinhart
P1
42.5%
45.6%
P2
41.9%
42.0%
P3
42.5%
45.4%
OT
100.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
39.7%
40.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McMichael
34.0%▼
45.0%
42.4%
Reinhart
40.0%▬
39.0%
44.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 24, 2024 | 3 | 19:49 | Defensive | Connor McMichael |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 3 | 09:04 | Defensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 2 | 19:53 | Defensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 2 | 15:30 | Offensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 2 | 12:33 | Offensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Feb 8, 2024 | 3 | 05:25 | Offensive | Connor McMichael |
| Nov 8, 2023 | 2 | 05:57 | Offensive | Sam Reinhart |