Scouting Report
Connor McMichael holds a +4.1% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McMichael 48.3% vs Novak 45.0% (+4.1%)
Offensive zone
Novak 55.5%
Defensive zone
Novak 52.6%
Neutral zone
Novak 53.2%
Result
Tommy Novak favored at 53.8%
46.2%
53.8%
McMichael
Novak
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
McMichael
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
43.7% (71)
42.9% (198)
+0.8%
Power Play
52.4% (21)
40.9% (22)
+11.5%
On power play, McMichael has a +11.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. McMichael is 48.6% vs left-shot opponents (70).
McMichael shoots left. Novak is 45.2% vs left-shot opponents (126).
Home / Away
McMichael
Novak
Home
42.6% (54)
40.9% (110)
Away
50.9% (55)
44.5% (110)
By Period
McMichael
Novak
P1
42.9%
39.1%
P2
40.5%
43.9%
P3
57.1%
44.9%
OT
50.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
55.2%
25.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McMichael
34.0%▼
45.0%
46.8%
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
42.7%