Connor McMichael vs Tommy Novak
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (42.9% vs 42.9%). Look for McMichael on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). McMichael wins 45.2% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McMichael 43.3% vs Novak 43.3% (+0.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Novak 65.7%
Defensive zone
McMichael 65.1%
Neutral zone
Novak 50.7%
Result
Tommy Novak favored at 52.9%
47.1%
52.9%
McMichael
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
McMichael
Novak
Last 6: McMichael 4-2 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McMichael
2
1
McMichael
Novak
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McMichael
2
0
McMichael
Novak
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Novak
0
1
McMichael
Novak
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McMichael
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
43.1% (1,574)
42.1% (1,539)
+1.0%
Power Play
46.0% (139)
51.9% (133)
-5.9%
Penalty Kill
38.3% (167)
50.0% (2)
-11.7%
On penalty kill, Novak has a +11.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. McMichael is 45.2% vs left-shot opponents (1,252).
McMichael shoots left. Novak is 43.2% vs left-shot opponents (1,078).
Home / Away
McMichael
Novak
Home
42.6% (976)
45.3% (814)
Away
43.3% (904)
40.6% (860)
By Period
McMichael
Novak
P1
43.3%
43.9%
P2
43.2%
42.8%
P3
41.9%
41.7%
OT
75.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
42.8%
40.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McMichael
34.0%▼
45.0%
42.9%
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
42.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 30, 2023 | 3 | 14:43 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Dec 30, 2023 | 3 | 09:45 | Defensive | Connor McMichael |
| Dec 30, 2023 | 1 | 19:45 | Offensive | Connor McMichael |
| Dec 30, 2023 | 1 | 04:14 | Defensive | Connor McMichael |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 3 | 00:39 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 2 | 01:51 | Offensive | Connor McMichael |