Scouting Report
Michael McCarron holds a +6.5% FO% edge overall. Look for McCarron on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Lazar wins 40.2% vs right-shot opponents — McCarron shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lazar 45.0% vs McCarron 50.2% (-6.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lazar 53.2%
Defensive zone
Lazar 54.7%
Neutral zone
Lazar 61.0%
Result
Curtis Lazar favored at 56.5%
56.5%
43.5%
Lazar
McCarron
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Lazar
McCarron
Last 8: Lazar 3-5 McCarron
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McCarron
0
3
Lazar
McCarron
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Lazar
McCarron
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lazar
2
1
Lazar
McCarron
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lazar
McCarron
Edge
Even Strength
44.3% (341)
50.0% (144)
-5.7%
Power Play
46.2% (26)
52.0% (25)
-5.8%
On power play, McCarron has a +5.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McCarron shoots right. Lazar is 40.2% vs right-shot opponents (122).
Lazar shoots right. McCarron is 51.6% vs right-shot opponents (62).
Home / Away
Lazar
McCarron
Home
45.0% (202)
46.3% (82)
Away
42.3% (182)
54.0% (87)
By Period
Lazar
McCarron
P1
45.5%
45.5%
P2
43.0%
53.6%
P3
42.1%
53.2%
Final 5 min
49.4%
54.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lazar
74.0%▲
64.0%
43.8%
McCarron
48.0%▬
48.5%
50.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2016 | 3 | 02:56 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Mar 19, 2016 | 3 | 02:46 | Offensive | Michael McCarron |
| Mar 19, 2016 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Curtis Lazar |
| Mar 19, 2016 | 2 | 18:15 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Mar 19, 2016 | 2 | 18:03 | Offensive | Michael McCarron |
| Mar 19, 2016 | 2 | 16:30 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Mar 19, 2016 | 2 | 03:02 | Offensive | Michael McCarron |
| Mar 19, 2016 | 1 | 15:40 | Neutral | Curtis Lazar |