Scouting Report
Curtis Lazar holds a +7.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Lazar on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Lazar wins 55.7% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lazar 51.1% vs MacKinnon 44.9% (+7.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lazar 59.3%
Defensive zone
Lazar 88.5%
Neutral zone
Lazar 81.0%
Result
Curtis Lazar favored at 76.2%
76.2%
23.8%
Lazar
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Lazar
MacKinnon
Last 9: Lazar 6-3 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Lazar
2
1
Lazar
MacKinnon
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lazar
2
1
Lazar
MacKinnon
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lazar
2
1
Lazar
MacKinnon
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lazar
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
52.9% (242)
44.7% (1,053)
+8.2%
Power Play
100.0% (3)
36.8% (95)
+63.2%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (27)
65.0% (20)
-31.7%
On power play, Lazar has a +63.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Lazar is 55.7% vs right-shot opponents (70).
Lazar shoots right. MacKinnon is 44.5% vs right-shot opponents (308).
Home / Away
Lazar
MacKinnon
Home
57.1% (119)
49.4% (553)
Away
47.1% (153)
40.0% (615)
By Period
Lazar
MacKinnon
P1
53.1%
45.3%
P2
52.2%
42.7%
P3
48.8%
45.1%
Final 5 min
42.0%
49.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lazar
74.0%▲
64.0%
51.5%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
44.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 20, 2023 | 3 | 13:59 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Jan 20, 2023 | 2 | 15:36 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 20, 2023 | 2 | 06:53 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 20, 2023 | 2 | 06:47 | Offensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Jan 5, 2023 | 3 | 11:45 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 5, 2023 | 3 | 06:31 | Offensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Jan 5, 2023 | 2 | 15:48 | Neutral | Curtis Lazar |
| Jan 5, 2023 | 2 | 13:15 | Neutral | Curtis Lazar |
| Jan 5, 2023 | 2 | 11:31 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |