Scouting Report
Curtis Lazar holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall. Lazar wins 42.9% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lazar 49.0% vs MacKinnon 46.5% (+2.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lazar 53.3%
Defensive zone
Lazar 63.9%
Neutral zone
Lazar 65.0%
Result
Curtis Lazar favored at 65.0%
65.0%
35.0%
Lazar
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Lazar
MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lazar
1
0
Lazar
MacKinnon
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lazar
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
48.7% (302)
45.5% (1,190)
+3.2%
Power Play
44.4% (9)
56.4% (94)
-12.0%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (54)
40.0% (30)
+10.0%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +12.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Lazar is 42.9% vs right-shot opponents (91).
Lazar shoots right. MacKinnon is 47.2% vs right-shot opponents (409).
Home / Away
Lazar
MacKinnon
Home
49.2% (189)
47.8% (670)
Away
48.3% (176)
44.6% (644)
By Period
Lazar
MacKinnon
P1
50.8%
45.3%
P2
45.2%
48.5%
P3
50.0%
45.0%
Final 5 min
43.9%
47.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lazar
74.0%▲
64.0%
48.8%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2023 | 3 | 06:59 | Neutral | Curtis Lazar |