Scouting Report
Curtis Lazar holds a +1.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Lazar on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Lazar wins 54.1% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lazar 51.0% vs Paul 50.0% (+1.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lazar 59.8%
Defensive zone
Lazar 75.1%
Neutral zone
Lazar 61.8%
Result
Curtis Lazar favored at 64.4%
64.4%
35.6%
Lazar
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Lazar
Paul
Last 8: Lazar 6-2 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Lazar
3
0
Lazar
Paul
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Lazar
Paul
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lazar
2
1
Lazar
Paul
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lazar
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
51.4% (356)
48.8% (666)
+2.6%
Power Play
62.5% (8)
53.8% (65)
+8.7%
Penalty Kill
47.2% (36)
60.0% (55)
-12.8%
On penalty kill, Paul has a +12.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Lazar is 54.1% vs left-shot opponents (294).
Lazar shoots right. Paul is 45.7% vs right-shot opponents (243).
Home / Away
Lazar
Paul
Home
49.7% (163)
49.7% (348)
Away
52.3% (237)
50.2% (438)
By Period
Lazar
Paul
P1
46.9%
51.0%
P2
53.3%
47.4%
P3
53.3%
51.5%
Final 5 min
52.1%
53.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lazar
74.0%▲
64.0%
51.3%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
50.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2025 | 1 | 11:02 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Jan 11, 2025 | 1 | 09:57 | Neutral | Curtis Lazar |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 3 | 10:52 | Offensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 2 | 15:53 | Neutral | Curtis Lazar |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 2 | 13:15 | Offensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 1 | 09:56 | Offensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 1 | 09:42 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 1 | 05:36 | Defensive | Nick Paul |