Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +3.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Lazar on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lazar 51.1% vs Hertl 54.5% (-3.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 75.4%
Defensive zone
Lazar 79.5%
Neutral zone
Lazar 54.9%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 51.1%
48.9%
51.1%
Lazar
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Lazar
Hertl
Last 6: Lazar 2-4 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Lazar
Hertl
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Lazar
Hertl
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lazar
2
1
Lazar
Hertl
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lazar
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
52.9% (242)
54.1% (1,117)
-1.2%
Power Play
100.0% (3)
59.8% (296)
+40.2%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (27)
34.4% (32)
-1.1%
On power play, Lazar has a +40.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Lazar is 50.0% vs left-shot opponents (202).
Lazar shoots right. Hertl is 61.2% vs right-shot opponents (562).
Home / Away
Lazar
Hertl
Home
57.1% (119)
54.3% (709)
Away
47.1% (153)
55.3% (736)
By Period
Lazar
Hertl
P1
53.1%
51.6%
P2
52.2%
53.6%
P3
48.8%
58.6%
Final 5 min
42.0%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lazar
74.0%▲
64.0%
51.5%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2022 | 3 | 16:07 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 7, 2022 | 3 | 11:28 | Neutral | Curtis Lazar |
| Dec 7, 2022 | 1 | 19:35 | Neutral | Curtis Lazar |
| Nov 27, 2022 | 3 | 12:05 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 27, 2022 | 1 | 18:36 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 27, 2022 | 1 | 11:12 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |