Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +5.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (93% H2H, 14 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lazar 49.2% vs Hertl 54.2% (-5.1%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 20-10 in 30 meetings
Offensive zone
Lazar 65.8%
Defensive zone
Lazar 88.2%
Neutral zone
Lazar 69.4%
Result
Curtis Lazar favored at 72.1%
72.1%
27.9%
Lazar
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
20
(30 meetings)
10
20
Lazar
Hertl
Last 10: Lazar 4-6 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
13
Lazar
Hertl
14 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
3
4
Lazar
Hertl
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lazar
6
3
Lazar
Hertl
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lazar
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
50.2% (2,658)
53.8% (8,268)
-3.6%
Power Play
52.3% (65)
59.3% (1,975)
-7.0%
Penalty Kill
41.9% (415)
46.3% (806)
-4.4%
On power play, Hertl has a +7.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Lazar is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (2,281).
Lazar shoots right. Hertl is 56.8% vs right-shot opponents (4,133).
Home / Away
Lazar
Hertl
Home
50.1% (1,542)
55.7% (5,344)
Away
48.2% (1,596)
52.8% (5,705)
By Period
Lazar
Hertl
P1
48.9%
53.6%
P2
48.9%
54.1%
P3
49.5%
55.3%
OT
56.5%
46.5%
Final 5 min
49.9%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lazar
74.0%▲
64.0%
49.1%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 21, 2025 | 3 | 03:39 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 3 | 03:31 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 3 | 00:29 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 2 | 14:04 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 2 | 12:10 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 2 | 12:06 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 2 | 09:36 | Neutral | Curtis Lazar |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 2 | 06:22 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 1 | 10:57 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 1 | 06:46 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 1 | 05:47 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 1 | 01:33 | Offensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Mar 2, 2025 | 3 | 19:01 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 2, 2025 | 3 | 17:00 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 2, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Curtis Lazar |
| Mar 2, 2025 | 1 | 10:06 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 2, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Curtis Lazar |
| Feb 6, 2025 | 2 | 16:26 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 6, 2025 | 2 | 11:53 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 7, 2022 | 3 | 16:07 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |