Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Lazar wins 54.1% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lazar 51.0% vs Hertl 55.4% (-4.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 68.7%
Defensive zone
Lazar 84.0%
Neutral zone
Lazar 58.5%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 53.4%
46.6%
53.4%
Lazar
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Lazar
Hertl
Last 7: Lazar 2-5 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
4
Lazar
Hertl
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Lazar
Hertl
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lazar
2
0
Lazar
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lazar
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
51.4% (356)
54.1% (717)
-2.7%
Power Play
62.5% (8)
61.9% (210)
+0.6%
Penalty Kill
47.2% (36)
58.1% (31)
-10.9%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +10.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Lazar is 54.1% vs left-shot opponents (294).
Lazar shoots right. Hertl is 56.6% vs right-shot opponents (362).
Home / Away
Lazar
Hertl
Home
49.7% (163)
58.1% (492)
Away
52.3% (237)
53.6% (466)
By Period
Lazar
Hertl
P1
46.9%
57.1%
P2
53.3%
54.0%
P3
53.3%
56.6%
Final 5 min
52.1%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lazar
74.0%▲
64.0%
51.3%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2025 | 3 | 19:01 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 2, 2025 | 3 | 17:00 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 2, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Curtis Lazar |
| Mar 2, 2025 | 1 | 10:06 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 2, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Curtis Lazar |
| Feb 6, 2025 | 2 | 16:26 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 6, 2025 | 2 | 11:53 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |