Scouting Report
Boone Jenner holds a +9.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Mercer on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Jenner wins 57.5% vs right-shot opponents — Mercer shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Jenner 53.9% vs Mercer 46.3% (+9.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mercer 76.1%
Defensive zone
Mercer 66.8%
Neutral zone
Mercer 75.0%
Result
Dawson Mercer favored at 73.0%
27.0%
73.0%
Jenner
Mercer
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Jenner
Mercer
Last 6: Jenner 1-5 Mercer
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Mercer
0
4
Jenner
Mercer
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Jenner
Mercer
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Jenner
Mercer
Edge
Even Strength
54.5% (775)
43.6% (241)
+10.9%
Power Play
59.1% (198)
50.0% (14)
+9.1%
Penalty Kill
46.4% (140)
70.0% (10)
-23.6%
On penalty kill, Mercer has a +23.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Mercer shoots right. Jenner is 57.5% vs right-shot opponents (447).
Jenner shoots left. Mercer is 45.8% vs left-shot opponents (201).
Home / Away
Jenner
Mercer
Home
52.9% (512)
41.7% (120)
Away
55.4% (601)
47.6% (145)
By Period
Jenner
Mercer
P1
55.0%
44.6%
P2
54.5%
45.4%
P3
53.6%
45.2%
OT
52.6%
0.0%
Final 5 min
53.5%
48.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Jenner
52.0%▲
49.0%
54.3%
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
44.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 19, 2024 | 2 | 07:11 | Defensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Jan 19, 2024 | 2 | 03:09 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Jan 19, 2024 | 1 | 19:10 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Jan 19, 2024 | 1 | 06:27 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 3 | 05:36 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 1 | 19:35 | Defensive | Boone Jenner |