Scouting Report
Dylan Cozens holds a +5.9% FO% edge overall. Mercer wins 34.9% vs right-shot opponents — Cozens shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 45.3% vs Cozens 48.4% (-5.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mercer 67.1%
Defensive zone
Mercer 59.6%
Neutral zone
Mercer 63.8%
Result
Dawson Mercer favored at 63.3%
63.3%
36.7%
Mercer
Cozens
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Mercer
Cozens
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cozens
0
1
Mercer
Cozens
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cozens
0
1
Mercer
Cozens
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Cozens
Edge
Even Strength
43.2% (148)
49.4% (859)
-6.2%
Power Play
40.0% (10)
49.5% (186)
-9.5%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (7)
39.5% (129)
-10.9%
On penalty kill, Cozens has a +10.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cozens shoots right. Mercer is 34.9% vs right-shot opponents (43).
Mercer shoots right. Cozens is 44.8% vs right-shot opponents (319).
Home / Away
Mercer
Cozens
Home
39.0% (82)
49.0% (600)
Away
45.8% (83)
47.6% (574)
By Period
Mercer
Cozens
P1
45.5%
46.5%
P2
44.0%
52.9%
P3
36.7%
45.2%
Final 5 min
36.6%
45.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
42.4%
Cozens
48.0%▼
52.5%
48.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2023 | 2 | 18:16 | Defensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Apr 11, 2023 | 2 | 16:45 | Offensive | Dylan Cozens |