Scouting Report
Dylan Cozens holds a +10.1% FO% edge overall. Mercer wins 41.4% vs right-shot opponents — Cozens shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 43.3% vs Cozens 50.6% (-10.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cozens 70.6%
Defensive zone
Cozens 66.0%
Neutral zone
Cozens 62.3%
Result
Dylan Cozens favored at 66.3%
33.7%
66.3%
Mercer
Cozens
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Mercer
Cozens
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cozens
0
1
Mercer
Cozens
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Mercer
1
0
Mercer
Cozens
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Mercer
1
0
Mercer
Cozens
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Cozens
Edge
Even Strength
41.0% (212)
51.4% (891)
-10.4%
Power Play
35.7% (14)
50.5% (184)
-14.8%
Penalty Kill
36.4% (11)
42.4% (85)
-6.0%
On power play, Cozens has a +14.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cozens shoots right. Mercer is 41.4% vs right-shot opponents (58).
Mercer shoots right. Cozens is 52.9% vs right-shot opponents (306).
Home / Away
Mercer
Cozens
Home
45.2% (126)
49.5% (638)
Away
35.1% (111)
51.9% (522)
By Period
Mercer
Cozens
P1
34.5%
51.9%
P2
43.4%
46.4%
P3
45.8%
54.2%
OT
0.0%
16.7%
Final 5 min
47.9%
48.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
40.5%
Cozens
48.0%▼
52.5%
50.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2025 | 3 | 00:18 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Feb 2, 2025 | 2 | 15:13 | Defensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Feb 2, 2025 | 2 | 05:37 | Offensive | Dylan Cozens |