Scouting Report
Dylan Cozens holds a +9.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Cozens on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Mercer wins 39.7% vs right-shot opponents — Cozens shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 39.9% vs Cozens 48.4% (-9.2%)
H2H factor
Cozens leads 9-8 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
Mercer 53.1%
Defensive zone
Cozens 53.1%
Neutral zone
Mercer 54.4%
Result
Dawson Mercer favored at 51.9%
51.9%
48.1%
Mercer
Cozens
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
9
(17 meetings)
8
9
Mercer
Cozens
Last 10: Mercer 6-4 Cozens
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cozens
1
3
Mercer
Cozens
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cozens
2
3
Mercer
Cozens
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Mercer
5
3
Mercer
Cozens
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Cozens
Edge
Even Strength
39.1% (1,412)
48.9% (4,075)
-9.8%
Power Play
41.1% (90)
50.4% (714)
-9.3%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (45)
41.0% (439)
-1.0%
On even strength, Cozens has a +9.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cozens shoots right. Mercer is 39.7% vs right-shot opponents (448).
Mercer shoots right. Cozens is 46.6% vs right-shot opponents (1,449).
Home / Away
Mercer
Cozens
Home
40.0% (755)
48.2% (2,677)
Away
38.5% (792)
48.6% (2,551)
By Period
Mercer
Cozens
P1
38.2%
49.1%
P2
39.2%
47.7%
P3
41.1%
48.8%
OT
0.0%
34.3%
Final 5 min
39.6%
46.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
39.2%
Cozens
48.0%▼
52.5%
48.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 12:24 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 04:37 | Defensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 04:29 | Neutral | Dylan Cozens |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 16:23 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 18:08 | Offensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 17:59 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 13:43 | Defensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 13:34 | Neutral | Dylan Cozens |
| Feb 2, 2025 | 3 | 00:18 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Feb 2, 2025 | 2 | 15:13 | Defensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Feb 2, 2025 | 2 | 05:37 | Offensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Nov 25, 2023 | 3 | 00:31 | Neutral | Dylan Cozens |
| Nov 25, 2023 | 1 | 13:03 | Defensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Apr 11, 2023 | 2 | 18:16 | Defensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Apr 11, 2023 | 2 | 16:45 | Offensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Apr 21, 2022 | 3 | 19:22 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Oct 23, 2021 | 1 | 01:29 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |