Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (44.9% vs 45.5%). Mercer wins 42.2% vs right-shot opponents — Cozens shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 46.3% vs Cozens 45.9% (-0.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mercer 61.5%
Defensive zone
Cozens 63.0%
Neutral zone
Mercer 59.6%
Result
Dylan Cozens favored at 51.7%
48.3%
51.7%
Mercer
Cozens
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Mercer
Cozens
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cozens
0
1
Mercer
Cozens
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cozens
0
1
Mercer
Cozens
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Cozens
Edge
Even Strength
43.6% (241)
46.7% (786)
-3.1%
Power Play
50.0% (14)
43.9% (171)
+6.1%
Penalty Kill
70.0% (10)
42.3% (189)
+27.7%
On penalty kill, Mercer has a +27.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cozens shoots right. Mercer is 42.2% vs right-shot opponents (64).
Mercer shoots right. Cozens is 40.9% vs right-shot opponents (313).
Home / Away
Mercer
Cozens
Home
41.7% (120)
46.2% (567)
Away
47.6% (145)
44.9% (579)
By Period
Mercer
Cozens
P1
44.6%
46.5%
P2
45.4%
46.5%
P3
45.2%
44.2%
OT
0.0%
22.2%
Final 5 min
48.6%
42.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
44.9%
Cozens
48.0%▼
52.5%
45.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 25, 2023 | 3 | 00:31 | Neutral | Dylan Cozens |
| Nov 25, 2023 | 1 | 13:03 | Defensive | Dylan Cozens |