Scouting Report
Elias Lindholm holds a +14.7% FO% edge overall. Mercer wins 41.4% vs right-shot opponents — Lindholm shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 43.3% vs Lindholm 54.9% (-14.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mercer 80.2%
Defensive zone
Mercer 78.1%
Neutral zone
Mercer 77.6%
Result
Dawson Mercer favored at 78.8%
78.8%
21.2%
Mercer
Lindholm
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Mercer
Lindholm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Lindholm
0
2
Mercer
Lindholm
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Mercer
Lindholm
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lindholm
0
1
Mercer
Lindholm
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Lindholm
Edge
Even Strength
41.0% (212)
54.9% (937)
-13.9%
Power Play
35.7% (14)
60.4% (265)
-24.7%
Penalty Kill
36.4% (11)
49.4% (172)
-13.0%
On power play, Lindholm has a +24.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lindholm shoots right. Mercer is 41.4% vs right-shot opponents (58).
Mercer shoots right. Lindholm is 52.9% vs right-shot opponents (259).
Home / Away
Mercer
Lindholm
Home
45.2% (126)
54.4% (688)
Away
35.1% (111)
56.1% (686)
By Period
Mercer
Lindholm
P1
34.5%
57.2%
P2
43.4%
54.3%
P3
45.8%
54.2%
OT
0.0%
54.5%
Final 5 min
47.9%
54.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
40.5%
Lindholm
58.0%▬
58.5%
55.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 8, 2025 | 2 | 06:05 | Offensive | Elias Lindholm |