Scouting Report
Evgeni Malkin holds a +5.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Mercer on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Mercer wins 40.2% vs left-shot opponents — Malkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 43.3% vs Malkin 46.4% (-5.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Malkin 65.3%
Defensive zone
Mercer 61.0%
Neutral zone
Malkin 52.3%
Result
Evgeni Malkin favored at 62.1%
37.9%
62.1%
Mercer
Malkin
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Mercer
Malkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Mercer
2
1
Mercer
Malkin
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Malkin
0
1
Mercer
Malkin
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Malkin
Edge
Even Strength
41.0% (212)
45.5% (602)
-4.5%
Power Play
35.7% (14)
50.0% (30)
-14.3%
Penalty Kill
36.4% (11)
100.0% (1)
-63.6%
On penalty kill, Malkin has a +63.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Malkin shoots left. Mercer is 40.2% vs left-shot opponents (179).
Mercer shoots right. Malkin is 40.1% vs right-shot opponents (202).
Home / Away
Mercer
Malkin
Home
45.2% (126)
47.5% (326)
Away
35.1% (111)
44.0% (307)
By Period
Mercer
Malkin
P1
34.5%
49.3%
P2
43.4%
44.7%
P3
45.8%
42.3%
OT
0.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
47.9%
49.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
40.5%
Malkin
36.0%▼
46.0%
45.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2025 | 3 | 12:12 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 1 | 17:11 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |