Scouting Report
Evgeni Malkin holds a +6.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Malkin on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Mercer wins 39.0% vs left-shot opponents — Malkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 39.9% vs Malkin 45.9% (-6.6%)
H2H factor
Malkin leads 7-6 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Malkin 53.2%
Defensive zone
Mercer 59.6%
Neutral zone
Mercer 55.0%
Result
Dawson Mercer favored at 52.3%
52.3%
47.7%
Mercer
Malkin
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
7
(13 meetings)
6
7
Mercer
Malkin
Last 10: Mercer 5-5 Malkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Malkin
2
4
Mercer
Malkin
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Mercer
2
1
Mercer
Malkin
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Mercer
Malkin
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Malkin
Edge
Even Strength
39.1% (1,412)
45.6% (10,081)
-6.5%
Power Play
41.1% (90)
50.1% (668)
-9.0%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (45)
32.2% (59)
+7.8%
On power play, Malkin has a +9.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Malkin shoots left. Mercer is 39.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,099).
Mercer shoots right. Malkin is 43.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,557).
Home / Away
Mercer
Malkin
Home
40.0% (755)
47.6% (5,395)
Away
38.5% (792)
44.0% (5,436)
By Period
Mercer
Malkin
P1
38.2%
45.9%
P2
39.2%
46.2%
P3
41.1%
45.2%
OT
0.0%
49.0%
Final 5 min
39.6%
46.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
39.2%
Malkin
36.0%▼
46.0%
45.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2025 | 3 | 12:12 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 1 | 17:11 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |
| Mar 19, 2024 | 1 | 19:40 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |
| Nov 16, 2023 | 3 | 06:15 | Defensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Nov 16, 2023 | 3 | 02:35 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Nov 16, 2023 | 3 | 01:19 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Nov 16, 2023 | 2 | 18:33 | Defensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Nov 16, 2023 | 2 | 16:11 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Nov 16, 2023 | 1 | 17:18 | Defensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Jan 22, 2023 | 2 | 17:16 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Feb 24, 2022 | 1 | 03:41 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |