Dawson Mercer vs Frederick Gaudreau
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Frederick Gaudreau holds a +3.4% FO% edge overall. Mercer wins 45.7% vs right-shot opponents — Gaudreau shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 42.2% vs Gaudreau 44.1% (-3.4%)
Offensive zone
Mercer 75.8%
Defensive zone
Gaudreau 80.4%
Neutral zone
Mercer 51.4%
Result
Frederick Gaudreau favored at 51.1%
48.9%
51.1%
Mercer
Gaudreau
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Gaudreau
Edge
Even Strength
39.0% (254)
46.0% (315)
-7.0%
Power Play
28.6% (7)
33.3% (12)
-4.7%
Penalty Kill
55.6% (9)
31.8% (85)
+23.8%
On penalty kill, Mercer has a +23.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gaudreau shoots right. Mercer is 45.7% vs right-shot opponents (94).
Mercer shoots right. Gaudreau is 44.4% vs right-shot opponents (90).
Home / Away
Mercer
Gaudreau
Home
34.1% (126)
42.9% (217)
Away
43.8% (144)
42.6% (195)
By Period
Mercer
Gaudreau
P1
31.3%
44.2%
P2
44.0%
44.4%
P3
43.7%
39.4%
Final 5 min
35.4%
49.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
37.5%
39.3%
Gaudreau
42.0%▼
47.5%
42.7%