Dawson Mercer vs Frederick Gaudreau
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Frederick Gaudreau holds a +9.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Mercer on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Mercer wins 39.7% vs right-shot opponents — Gaudreau shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 39.9% vs Gaudreau 48.6% (-9.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Gaudreau 54.9%
Defensive zone
Gaudreau 92.5%
Neutral zone
Gaudreau 74.3%
Result
Frederick Gaudreau favored at 74.1%
25.9%
74.1%
Mercer
Gaudreau
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Mercer
Gaudreau
Last 7: Mercer 5-2 Gaudreau
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Mercer
1
0
Mercer
Gaudreau
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gaudreau
0
1
Mercer
Gaudreau
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Mercer
4
1
Mercer
Gaudreau
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Gaudreau
Edge
Even Strength
39.1% (1,412)
48.7% (3,745)
-9.6%
Power Play
41.1% (90)
53.9% (219)
-12.8%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (45)
46.6% (789)
-6.6%
On power play, Gaudreau has a +12.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gaudreau shoots right. Mercer is 39.7% vs right-shot opponents (448).
Mercer shoots right. Gaudreau is 47.7% vs right-shot opponents (1,280).
Home / Away
Mercer
Gaudreau
Home
40.0% (755)
49.2% (2,437)
Away
38.5% (792)
47.8% (2,316)
By Period
Mercer
Gaudreau
P1
38.2%
49.7%
P2
39.2%
47.3%
P3
41.1%
49.1%
OT
0.0%
36.7%
Final 5 min
39.6%
47.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
39.2%
Gaudreau
34.0%▼
44.5%
48.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2025 | 3 | 01:36 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 1 | 11:33 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 1 | 11:22 | Neutral | Frederick Gaudreau |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 2 | 13:48 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 2 | 05:22 | Defensive | Frederick Gaudreau |
| Mar 21, 2023 | 3 | 12:53 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 2 | 00:40 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |