Dawson Mercer vs Frederick Gaudreau
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Frederick Gaudreau holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Mercer wins 44.0% vs right-shot opponents — Gaudreau shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 41.8% vs Gaudreau 43.9% (-3.7%)
Offensive zone
Mercer 81.6%
Defensive zone
Gaudreau 84.7%
Neutral zone
Gaudreau 50.1%
Result
Frederick Gaudreau favored at 51.1%
48.9%
51.1%
Mercer
Gaudreau
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Gaudreau
Edge
Even Strength
38.8% (263)
45.0% (389)
-6.2%
Power Play
35.3% (17)
31.8% (22)
+3.5%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (10)
37.6% (125)
+12.4%
On penalty kill, Mercer has a +12.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gaudreau shoots right. Mercer is 44.0% vs right-shot opponents (100).
Mercer shoots right. Gaudreau is 42.2% vs right-shot opponents (109).
Home / Away
Mercer
Gaudreau
Home
34.7% (144)
42.6% (277)
Away
43.2% (146)
42.9% (259)
By Period
Mercer
Gaudreau
P1
32.7%
43.8%
P2
42.7%
44.8%
P3
42.2%
39.2%
Final 5 min
39.2%
46.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
39.0%
Gaudreau
34.0%▼
44.5%
42.7%