Dawson Mercer vs Frederick Gaudreau
2024-25 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Frederick Gaudreau holds a +7.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Mercer on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Mercer wins 41.4% vs right-shot opponents — Gaudreau shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 43.3% vs Gaudreau 48.4% (-7.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Gaudreau 51.3%
Defensive zone
Gaudreau 78.5%
Neutral zone
Gaudreau 61.3%
Result
Frederick Gaudreau favored at 64.8%
35.2%
64.8%
Mercer
Gaudreau
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Mercer
Gaudreau
Last 5: Mercer 3-2 Gaudreau
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gaudreau
0
1
Mercer
Gaudreau
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Mercer
3
1
Mercer
Gaudreau
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Gaudreau
Edge
Even Strength
41.0% (212)
49.2% (858)
-8.2%
Power Play
35.7% (14)
39.0% (41)
-3.3%
Penalty Kill
36.4% (11)
46.0% (198)
-9.6%
On penalty kill, Gaudreau has a +9.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gaudreau shoots right. Mercer is 41.4% vs right-shot opponents (58).
Mercer shoots right. Gaudreau is 51.1% vs right-shot opponents (278).
Home / Away
Mercer
Gaudreau
Home
45.2% (126)
47.1% (546)
Away
35.1% (111)
49.4% (551)
By Period
Mercer
Gaudreau
P1
34.5%
46.8%
P2
43.4%
46.8%
P3
45.8%
51.1%
OT
0.0%
40.0%
Final 5 min
47.9%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
40.5%
Gaudreau
34.0%▼
44.5%
48.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2025 | 3 | 01:36 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 1 | 11:33 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 1 | 11:22 | Neutral | Frederick Gaudreau |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 2 | 13:48 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 2 | 05:22 | Defensive | Frederick Gaudreau |