Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (35.4% vs 34.6%). Mercer wins 34.6% vs left-shot opponents — Hughes shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 37.5% vs Hughes 38.0% (+0.8%)
Offensive zone
Hughes 56.2%
Defensive zone
Hughes 52.9%
Neutral zone
Mercer 56.2%
Result
Jack Hughes favored at 51.0%
49.0%
51.0%
Mercer
Hughes
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Hughes
Edge
Even Strength
35.4% (548)
34.5% (342)
+0.9%
Power Play
42.9% (35)
42.9% (7)
+0.0%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (7)
25.0% (4)
-25.0%
On penalty kill, Hughes has a +25.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hughes shoots left. Mercer is 34.6% vs left-shot opponents (407).
Mercer shoots right. Hughes is 35.7% vs right-shot opponents (143).
Home / Away
Mercer
Hughes
Home
39.9% (283)
32.6% (187)
Away
31.3% (307)
36.7% (166)
By Period
Mercer
Hughes
P1
37.7%
33.9%
P2
32.1%
34.2%
P3
37.7%
36.5%
OT
0.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
33.3%
29.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
35.4%
Hughes
38.0%▲
36.0%
34.6%