Scouting Report
Dawson Mercer holds a +7.7% FO% edge overall. Mercer wins 45.8% vs left-shot opponents — Hughes shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 46.3% vs Hughes 40.3% (+7.7%)
Offensive zone
Hughes 71.3%
Defensive zone
Mercer 57.8%
Neutral zone
Mercer 55.0%
Result
Jack Hughes favored at 52.8%
47.2%
52.8%
Mercer
Hughes
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Hughes
Edge
Even Strength
43.6% (241)
35.6% (281)
+8.0%
Power Play
50.0% (14)
50.0% (36)
+0.0%
On even strength, Mercer has a +8.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hughes shoots left. Mercer is 45.8% vs left-shot opponents (201).
Mercer shoots right. Hughes is 41.4% vs right-shot opponents (111).
Home / Away
Mercer
Hughes
Home
41.7% (120)
38.4% (198)
Away
47.6% (145)
35.3% (119)
By Period
Mercer
Hughes
P1
44.6%
44.3%
P2
45.4%
34.2%
P3
45.2%
34.0%
Final 5 min
48.6%
40.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
44.9%
Hughes
38.0%▲
36.0%
37.2%