Scouting Report
Dawson Mercer holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Mercer wins 40.2% vs left-shot opponents — Hughes shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 43.3% vs Hughes 39.2% (+2.9%)
Offensive zone
Hughes 71.0%
Defensive zone
Mercer 59.4%
Neutral zone
Mercer 51.3%
Result
Jack Hughes favored at 53.5%
46.5%
53.5%
Mercer
Hughes
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Hughes
Edge
Even Strength
41.0% (212)
37.9% (623)
+3.1%
Power Play
35.7% (14)
33.3% (33)
+2.4%
Penalty Kill
36.4% (11)
36.4% (11)
+0.0%
On even strength, Mercer has a +3.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hughes shoots left. Mercer is 40.2% vs left-shot opponents (179).
Mercer shoots right. Hughes is 37.0% vs right-shot opponents (208).
Home / Away
Mercer
Hughes
Home
45.2% (126)
36.6% (314)
Away
35.1% (111)
38.5% (353)
By Period
Mercer
Hughes
P1
34.5%
36.4%
P2
43.4%
35.6%
P3
45.8%
41.8%
OT
0.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
47.9%
36.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
40.5%
Hughes
38.0%▲
36.0%
37.6%