Scouting Report
Dawson Mercer holds a +2.8% FO% edge overall. Mercer wins 36.3% vs left-shot opponents — Hughes shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 41.8% vs Hughes 39.8% (+2.8%)
Offensive zone
Mercer 51.1%
Defensive zone
Mercer 56.4%
Neutral zone
Hughes 55.1%
Result
Dawson Mercer favored at 50.8%
50.8%
49.2%
Mercer
Hughes
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Hughes
Edge
Even Strength
38.8% (263)
36.8% (266)
+2.0%
Power Play
35.3% (17)
14.3% (7)
+21.0%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (10)
33.3% (6)
+16.7%
On power play, Mercer has a +21.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hughes shoots left. Mercer is 36.3% vs left-shot opponents (190).
Mercer shoots right. Hughes is 41.1% vs right-shot opponents (90).
Home / Away
Mercer
Hughes
Home
34.7% (144)
35.1% (148)
Away
43.2% (146)
37.4% (131)
By Period
Mercer
Hughes
P1
32.7%
43.0%
P2
42.7%
28.7%
P3
42.2%
35.2%
Final 5 min
39.2%
28.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
39.0%
Hughes
38.0%▲
36.0%
36.2%