Dawson Mercer vs Jack Hughes

2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report

Dawson Mercer holds a +2.8% FO% edge overall. Mercer wins 36.3% vs left-shot opponents — Hughes shoots left.

Prediction Breakdown
Model XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian) Mercer 41.8% vs Hughes 39.8% (+2.8%)
Offensive zone Mercer 51.1%
Defensive zone Mercer 56.4%
Neutral zone Hughes 55.1%
Result Dawson Mercer favored at 50.8%
50.8%
49.2%
Mercer Hughes
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded

Situation Matchup

Situation
Mercer
Hughes
Edge
Even Strength
38.8% (263)
36.8% (266)
+2.0%
Power Play
35.3% (17)
14.3% (7)
+21.0%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (10)
33.3% (6)
+16.7%
On power play, Mercer has a +21.0% edge.

Handedness & Splits

Handedness
Hughes shoots left. Mercer is 36.3% vs left-shot opponents (190).
Mercer shoots right. Hughes is 41.1% vs right-shot opponents (90).
Home / Away
Mercer
Hughes
Home
34.7% (144)
35.1% (148)
Away
43.2% (146)
37.4% (131)
By Period
Mercer
Hughes
P1
32.7%
43.0%
P2
42.7%
28.7%
P3
42.2%
35.2%
Final 5 min
39.2%
28.6%

Recent Form

Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%
36.5%
39.0%
Hughes
38.0%
36.0%
36.2%