Scouting Report
Dawson Mercer holds a +7.1% FO% edge overall. Mercer wins 45.1% vs left-shot opponents — Hughes shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 45.3% vs Hughes 37.9% (+7.1%)
Offensive zone
Hughes 60.4%
Defensive zone
Mercer 64.4%
Neutral zone
Hughes 56.3%
Result
Jack Hughes favored at 50.8%
49.2%
50.8%
Mercer
Hughes
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Hughes
Edge
Even Strength
43.2% (148)
34.9% (444)
+8.3%
Power Play
40.0% (10)
50.0% (14)
-10.0%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (7)
33.3% (6)
-4.7%
On power play, Hughes has a +10.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hughes shoots left. Mercer is 45.1% vs left-shot opponents (122).
Mercer shoots right. Hughes is 35.2% vs right-shot opponents (179).
Home / Away
Mercer
Hughes
Home
39.0% (82)
37.4% (235)
Away
45.8% (83)
33.2% (229)
By Period
Mercer
Hughes
P1
45.5%
37.1%
P2
44.0%
33.7%
P3
36.7%
34.8%
Final 5 min
36.6%
32.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
42.4%
Hughes
38.0%▲
36.0%
35.3%