Scouting Report
Dawson Mercer holds a +8.5% FO% edge overall. Mercer wins 39.7% vs right-shot opponents — Armia shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 39.9% vs Armia 36.8% (+8.5%)
Offensive zone
Mercer 53.3%
Defensive zone
Mercer 52.8%
Neutral zone
Mercer 54.3%
Result
Dawson Mercer favored at 53.5%
53.5%
46.5%
Mercer
Armia
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Armia
Edge
Even Strength
39.1% (1,412)
31.6% (174)
+7.5%
Power Play
41.1% (90)
25.0% (8)
+16.1%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (45)
27.8% (36)
+12.2%
On power play, Mercer has a +16.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Armia shoots right. Mercer is 39.7% vs right-shot opponents (448).
Mercer shoots right. Armia is 26.2% vs right-shot opponents (61).
Home / Away
Mercer
Armia
Home
40.0% (755)
32.6% (95)
Away
38.5% (792)
29.3% (123)
By Period
Mercer
Armia
P1
38.2%
33.3%
P2
39.2%
30.5%
P3
41.1%
28.6%
Final 5 min
39.6%
25.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
39.2%
Armia
40.0%▲
30.0%
30.7%