Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +11.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Frost on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Mercer wins 39.0% vs left-shot opponents — Frost shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 39.9% vs Frost 50.3% (-11.1%)
H2H factor
Mercer leads 9-8 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
Frost 69.9%
Defensive zone
Frost 65.4%
Neutral zone
Frost 61.9%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 65.5%
34.5%
65.5%
Mercer
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
8
(17 meetings)
9
8
Mercer
Frost
Last 10: Mercer 6-4 Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
1
4
Mercer
Frost
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Mercer
4
2
Mercer
Frost
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Mercer
4
2
Mercer
Frost
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
39.1% (1,412)
49.4% (3,598)
-10.3%
Power Play
41.1% (90)
55.5% (625)
-14.4%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (45)
52.8% (36)
-12.8%
On power play, Frost has a +14.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Mercer is 39.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,099).
Mercer shoots right. Frost is 49.8% vs right-shot opponents (1,477).
Home / Away
Mercer
Frost
Home
40.0% (755)
51.0% (2,047)
Away
38.5% (792)
49.7% (2,212)
By Period
Mercer
Frost
P1
38.2%
50.8%
P2
39.2%
51.1%
P3
41.1%
48.5%
OT
0.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
39.6%
48.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
39.2%
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
50.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2025 | 3 | 06:50 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 1 | 03:30 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Jan 29, 2025 | 2 | 01:10 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 29, 2025 | 2 | 00:54 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 27, 2025 | 2 | 18:33 | Defensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Jan 27, 2025 | 2 | 18:24 | Defensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Jan 27, 2025 | 2 | 15:43 | Defensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Jan 27, 2025 | 1 | 10:58 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 27, 2025 | 1 | 03:11 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 27, 2025 | 1 | 02:44 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 19, 2023 | 2 | 03:04 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Dec 19, 2023 | 2 | 01:10 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Dec 19, 2023 | 1 | 14:16 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 19, 2023 | 1 | 11:46 | Defensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 3 | 13:16 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 28, 2021 | 1 | 11:22 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |