Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +10.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Frost on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Mercer wins 40.2% vs left-shot opponents — Frost shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 43.3% vs Frost 51.1% (-10.7%)
H2H factor
Mercer leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Frost 85.0%
Defensive zone
Frost 54.8%
Neutral zone
Frost 61.7%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 64.9%
35.1%
64.9%
Mercer
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
5
(11 meetings)
6
5
Mercer
Frost
Last 10: Mercer 6-4 Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
1
2
Mercer
Frost
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Mercer
3
2
Mercer
Frost
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Mercer
2
1
Mercer
Frost
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
41.0% (212)
50.3% (825)
-9.3%
Power Play
35.7% (14)
54.9% (204)
-19.2%
Penalty Kill
36.4% (11)
50.0% (4)
-13.6%
On power play, Frost has a +19.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Mercer is 40.2% vs left-shot opponents (179).
Mercer shoots right. Frost is 49.7% vs right-shot opponents (336).
Home / Away
Mercer
Frost
Home
45.2% (126)
50.7% (489)
Away
35.1% (111)
51.7% (544)
By Period
Mercer
Frost
P1
34.5%
53.6%
P2
43.4%
47.8%
P3
45.8%
52.0%
OT
0.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
47.9%
48.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
40.5%
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
51.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2025 | 3 | 06:50 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 1 | 03:30 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Jan 29, 2025 | 2 | 01:10 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 29, 2025 | 2 | 00:54 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 27, 2025 | 2 | 18:33 | Defensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Jan 27, 2025 | 2 | 18:24 | Defensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Jan 27, 2025 | 2 | 15:43 | Defensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Jan 27, 2025 | 1 | 10:58 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 27, 2025 | 1 | 03:11 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 27, 2025 | 1 | 02:44 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |