Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Mercer on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Mercer wins 45.8% vs left-shot opponents — Frost shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 46.3% vs Frost 49.5% (-4.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 70.6%
Defensive zone
Frost 56.2%
Neutral zone
Frost 54.2%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 57.9%
42.1%
57.9%
Mercer
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Mercer
Frost
Last 5: Mercer 3-2 Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
0
1
Mercer
Frost
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Mercer
1
0
Mercer
Frost
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Mercer
2
1
Mercer
Frost
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
43.6% (241)
48.6% (704)
-5.0%
Power Play
50.0% (14)
55.7% (115)
-5.7%
Penalty Kill
70.0% (10)
25.0% (4)
+45.0%
On penalty kill, Mercer has a +45.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Mercer is 45.8% vs left-shot opponents (201).
Mercer shoots right. Frost is 53.5% vs right-shot opponents (331).
Home / Away
Mercer
Frost
Home
41.7% (120)
49.9% (399)
Away
47.6% (145)
49.1% (424)
By Period
Mercer
Frost
P1
44.6%
51.2%
P2
45.4%
53.9%
P3
45.2%
42.7%
OT
0.0%
40.0%
Final 5 min
48.6%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
44.9%
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
49.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 19, 2023 | 2 | 03:04 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Dec 19, 2023 | 2 | 01:10 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Dec 19, 2023 | 1 | 14:16 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 19, 2023 | 1 | 11:46 | Defensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 3 | 13:16 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |