Scouting Report
Dawson Mercer holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Mercer on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Mercer wins 45.1% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 45.3% vs Cates 40.4% (+2.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mercer 80.9%
Defensive zone
Cates 55.7%
Neutral zone
Mercer 68.1%
Result
Dawson Mercer favored at 66.3%
66.3%
33.7%
Mercer
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Mercer
Cates
Last 5: Mercer 4-1 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Mercer
3
0
Mercer
Cates
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Mercer
Cates
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
43.2% (148)
40.4% (841)
+2.8%
Power Play
40.0% (10)
42.4% (66)
-2.4%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (7)
32.7% (147)
-4.1%
On penalty kill, Cates has a +4.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Mercer is 45.1% vs left-shot opponents (122).
Mercer shoots right. Cates is 40.0% vs right-shot opponents (305).
Home / Away
Mercer
Cates
Home
39.0% (82)
38.2% (566)
Away
45.8% (83)
41.0% (488)
By Period
Mercer
Cates
P1
45.5%
40.5%
P2
44.0%
42.4%
P3
36.7%
35.3%
Final 5 min
36.6%
36.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
42.4%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
39.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 15, 2022 | 1 | 09:50 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 3 | 07:17 | Defensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 3 | 03:44 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 2 | 17:50 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 1 | 03:47 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |