Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (44.9% vs 44.5%). Mercer wins 45.8% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 46.3% vs Cates 45.8% (+0.4%)
Offensive zone
Mercer 65.2%
Defensive zone
Cates 63.7%
Neutral zone
Cates 50.5%
Result
Dawson Mercer favored at 50.3%
50.3%
49.7%
Mercer
Cates
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
43.6% (241)
44.3% (271)
-0.7%
Power Play
50.0% (14)
77.8% (18)
-27.8%
Penalty Kill
70.0% (10)
31.7% (41)
+38.3%
On penalty kill, Mercer has a +38.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Mercer is 45.8% vs left-shot opponents (201).
Mercer shoots right. Cates is 48.1% vs right-shot opponents (106).
Home / Away
Mercer
Cates
Home
41.7% (120)
52.0% (148)
Away
47.6% (145)
38.5% (182)
By Period
Mercer
Cates
P1
44.6%
42.7%
P2
45.4%
42.9%
P3
45.2%
48.5%
Final 5 min
48.6%
44.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
44.9%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.5%