Scouting Report
Noah Cates holds a +3.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Mercer on offensive-zone draws (85% H2H, 13 meetings). Mercer wins 39.0% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 39.9% vs Cates 43.2% (-3.8%)
H2H factor
Mercer leads 20-7 in 27 meetings
Offensive zone
Cates 63.8%
Defensive zone
Cates 91.7%
Neutral zone
Cates 73.4%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 72.8%
27.2%
72.8%
Mercer
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
20
-
7
(27 meetings)
20
7
Mercer
Cates
Last 10: Mercer 6-4 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Mercer
11
2
Mercer
Cates
13 total
Defensive Zone
Even
3
3
Mercer
Cates
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Mercer
6
2
Mercer
Cates
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
39.1% (1,412)
44.1% (2,742)
-5.0%
Power Play
41.1% (90)
43.0% (242)
-1.9%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (45)
34.9% (373)
+5.1%
On penalty kill, Mercer has a +5.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Mercer is 39.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,099).
Mercer shoots right. Cates is 45.2% vs right-shot opponents (1,073).
Home / Away
Mercer
Cates
Home
40.0% (755)
43.8% (1,663)
Away
38.5% (792)
42.1% (1,694)
By Period
Mercer
Cates
P1
38.2%
44.5%
P2
39.2%
43.5%
P3
41.1%
41.2%
OT
0.0%
29.4%
Final 5 min
39.6%
41.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
39.2%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
43.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 29, 2025 | 3 | 11:25 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 3 | 03:44 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 3 | 00:54 | Defensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 2 | 10:37 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 1 | 10:40 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 1 | 10:27 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 1 | 07:08 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 1 | 04:36 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 13:27 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 2 | 11:04 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 2 | 02:01 | Defensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 1 | 12:15 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Jan 29, 2025 | 3 | 14:35 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Jan 29, 2025 | 3 | 11:33 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Jan 29, 2025 | 3 | 03:51 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Jan 29, 2025 | 3 | 01:02 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Jan 29, 2025 | 2 | 07:06 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Jan 29, 2025 | 1 | 18:05 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Jan 29, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Jan 27, 2025 | 3 | 18:38 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |