Scouting Report
Noah Cates holds a +4.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Mercer on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings). Mercer wins 40.2% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 43.3% vs Cates 45.1% (-4.1%)
H2H factor
Mercer leads 8-2 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Cates 53.9%
Defensive zone
Cates 86.1%
Neutral zone
Cates 68.3%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 61.4%
38.6%
61.4%
Mercer
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
2
(10 meetings)
8
2
Mercer
Cates
Last 10: Mercer 8-2 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Mercer
6
0
Mercer
Cates
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cates
0
1
Mercer
Cates
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Mercer
2
1
Mercer
Cates
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
41.0% (212)
46.7% (912)
-5.7%
Power Play
35.7% (14)
33.9% (56)
+1.8%
Penalty Kill
36.4% (11)
35.0% (137)
+1.4%
On even strength, Cates has a +5.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Mercer is 40.2% vs left-shot opponents (179).
Mercer shoots right. Cates is 47.3% vs right-shot opponents (338).
Home / Away
Mercer
Cates
Home
45.2% (126)
46.1% (521)
Away
35.1% (111)
43.3% (584)
By Period
Mercer
Cates
P1
34.5%
48.0%
P2
43.4%
42.3%
P3
45.8%
44.3%
OT
0.0%
31.3%
Final 5 min
47.9%
42.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
40.5%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2025 | 3 | 14:35 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Jan 29, 2025 | 3 | 11:33 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Jan 29, 2025 | 3 | 03:51 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Jan 29, 2025 | 3 | 01:02 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Jan 29, 2025 | 2 | 07:06 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Jan 29, 2025 | 1 | 18:05 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Jan 29, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Jan 27, 2025 | 3 | 18:38 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Jan 27, 2025 | 3 | 15:37 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 1 | 14:57 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |