Scouting Report
Patrick Brown holds a +23.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Brown on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Mercer wins 37.2% vs right-shot opponents — Brown shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 37.5% vs Brown 56.8% (-23.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mercer 87.1%
Defensive zone
Brown 62.6%
Neutral zone
Mercer 75.0%
Result
Dawson Mercer favored at 65.4%
65.4%
34.6%
Mercer
Brown
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Mercer
Brown
Last 8: Mercer 2-6 Brown
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Brown
1
2
Mercer
Brown
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Brown
0
3
Mercer
Brown
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Mercer
Brown
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Brown
Edge
Even Strength
35.4% (548)
61.3% (336)
-25.9%
Power Play
42.9% (35)
50.0% (4)
-7.1%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (7)
45.9% (74)
-45.9%
On penalty kill, Brown has a +45.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Brown shoots right. Mercer is 37.2% vs right-shot opponents (183).
Mercer shoots right. Brown is 60.5% vs right-shot opponents (119).
Home / Away
Mercer
Brown
Home
39.9% (283)
61.1% (180)
Away
31.3% (307)
56.4% (234)
By Period
Mercer
Brown
P1
37.7%
57.5%
P2
32.1%
58.5%
P3
37.7%
59.2%
OT
0.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
33.3%
61.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
35.4%
Brown
44.0%▼
48.5%
58.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 14, 2021 | 3 | 19:29 | Defensive | Patrick Brown |
| Dec 14, 2021 | 3 | 16:41 | Defensive | Patrick Brown |
| Dec 14, 2021 | 2 | 07:55 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Dec 8, 2021 | 3 | 19:48 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Dec 8, 2021 | 3 | 19:40 | Offensive | Patrick Brown |
| Dec 8, 2021 | 3 | 19:30 | Neutral | Patrick Brown |
| Dec 8, 2021 | 2 | 18:22 | Defensive | Patrick Brown |
| Dec 8, 2021 | 2 | 06:04 | Offensive | Patrick Brown |