Scouting Report
Patrick Brown holds a +16.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Brown on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Mercer wins 39.7% vs right-shot opponents — Brown shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 39.9% vs Brown 54.6% (-16.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mercer 89.4%
Defensive zone
Brown 60.7%
Neutral zone
Mercer 77.6%
Result
Dawson Mercer favored at 67.6%
67.6%
32.4%
Mercer
Brown
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Mercer
Brown
Last 8: Mercer 2-6 Brown
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Brown
1
2
Mercer
Brown
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Brown
0
3
Mercer
Brown
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Mercer
Brown
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Brown
Edge
Even Strength
39.1% (1,412)
56.5% (726)
-17.4%
Power Play
41.1% (90)
62.5% (8)
-21.4%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (45)
47.8% (136)
-7.8%
On power play, Brown has a +21.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Brown shoots right. Mercer is 39.7% vs right-shot opponents (448).
Mercer shoots right. Brown is 54.2% vs right-shot opponents (251).
Home / Away
Mercer
Brown
Home
40.0% (755)
57.4% (364)
Away
38.5% (792)
53.6% (506)
By Period
Mercer
Brown
P1
38.2%
51.4%
P2
39.2%
54.6%
P3
41.1%
58.8%
OT
0.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
39.6%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
39.2%
Brown
44.0%▼
48.5%
55.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 14, 2021 | 3 | 19:29 | Defensive | Patrick Brown |
| Dec 14, 2021 | 3 | 16:41 | Defensive | Patrick Brown |
| Dec 14, 2021 | 2 | 07:55 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Dec 8, 2021 | 3 | 19:48 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Dec 8, 2021 | 3 | 19:40 | Offensive | Patrick Brown |
| Dec 8, 2021 | 3 | 19:30 | Neutral | Patrick Brown |
| Dec 8, 2021 | 2 | 18:22 | Defensive | Patrick Brown |
| Dec 8, 2021 | 2 | 06:04 | Offensive | Patrick Brown |