Scouting Report
Ryan Hartman holds a +9.4% FO% edge overall. Mercer wins 37.2% vs right-shot opponents — Hartman shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 37.5% vs Hartman 45.3% (-9.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mercer 55.7%
Defensive zone
Mercer 53.2%
Neutral zone
Mercer 59.1%
Result
Dawson Mercer favored at 58.0%
58.0%
42.0%
Mercer
Hartman
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Mercer
Hartman
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Mercer
1
0
Mercer
Hartman
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hartman
0
2
Mercer
Hartman
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Hartman
Edge
Even Strength
35.4% (548)
44.8% (936)
-9.4%
Power Play
42.9% (35)
49.4% (154)
-6.5%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (7)
33.3% (54)
-33.3%
On penalty kill, Hartman has a +33.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hartman shoots right. Mercer is 37.2% vs right-shot opponents (183).
Mercer shoots right. Hartman is 47.1% vs right-shot opponents (344).
Home / Away
Mercer
Hartman
Home
39.9% (283)
47.4% (568)
Away
31.3% (307)
42.4% (576)
By Period
Mercer
Hartman
P1
37.7%
47.2%
P2
32.1%
43.4%
P3
37.7%
43.8%
OT
0.0%
53.8%
Final 5 min
33.3%
49.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
35.4%
Hartman
54.0%▲
52.0%
44.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 24, 2021 | 2 | 12:13 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |
| Nov 24, 2021 | 2 | 12:00 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Nov 24, 2021 | 1 | 15:25 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |