Scouting Report
Ryan Hartman holds a +7.3% FO% edge overall. Mercer wins 41.4% vs right-shot opponents — Hartman shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 43.3% vs Hartman 48.1% (-7.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mercer 56.3%
Defensive zone
Hartman 56.5%
Neutral zone
Hartman 52.4%
Result
Ryan Hartman favored at 50.1%
49.9%
50.1%
Mercer
Hartman
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Mercer
Hartman
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Mercer
1
0
Mercer
Hartman
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hartman
0
1
Mercer
Hartman
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Hartman
Edge
Even Strength
41.0% (212)
48.1% (520)
-7.1%
Power Play
35.7% (14)
44.7% (47)
-9.0%
Penalty Kill
36.4% (11)
47.8% (23)
-11.4%
On penalty kill, Hartman has a +11.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hartman shoots right. Mercer is 41.4% vs right-shot opponents (58).
Mercer shoots right. Hartman is 52.7% vs right-shot opponents (148).
Home / Away
Mercer
Hartman
Home
45.2% (126)
48.3% (360)
Away
35.1% (111)
47.0% (230)
By Period
Mercer
Hartman
P1
34.5%
48.5%
P2
43.4%
45.2%
P3
45.8%
49.6%
OT
0.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
47.9%
42.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
40.5%
Hartman
54.0%▲
52.0%
47.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2025 | 3 | 10:26 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 3 | 01:21 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |