Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (42.4% vs 42.9%). Mercer wins 34.9% vs right-shot opponents — Hartman shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 45.3% vs Hartman 44.0% (-0.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mercer 56.4%
Defensive zone
Hartman 58.8%
Neutral zone
Hartman 50.1%
Result
Ryan Hartman favored at 53.7%
46.3%
53.7%
Mercer
Hartman
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Mercer
Hartman
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Mercer
1
0
Mercer
Hartman
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hartman
0
2
Mercer
Hartman
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Hartman
Edge
Even Strength
43.2% (148)
42.6% (495)
+0.6%
Power Play
40.0% (10)
38.5% (26)
+1.5%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (7)
48.8% (43)
-20.2%
On penalty kill, Hartman has a +20.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hartman shoots right. Mercer is 34.9% vs right-shot opponents (43).
Mercer shoots right. Hartman is 46.8% vs right-shot opponents (158).
Home / Away
Mercer
Hartman
Home
39.0% (82)
43.4% (288)
Away
45.8% (83)
42.4% (276)
By Period
Mercer
Hartman
P1
45.5%
43.1%
P2
44.0%
43.4%
P3
36.7%
42.0%
Final 5 min
36.6%
44.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
42.4%
Hartman
54.0%▲
52.0%
42.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2023 | 3 | 14:57 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Mar 21, 2023 | 2 | 15:19 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 1 | 01:41 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |