Scouting Report
Ryan Hartman holds a +6.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Mercer on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Mercer wins 44.0% vs right-shot opponents — Hartman shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 41.8% vs Hartman 45.5% (-6.0%)
H2H factor
Mercer leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Hartman 53.4%
Defensive zone
Hartman 71.9%
Neutral zone
Hartman 62.1%
Result
Ryan Hartman favored at 59.8%
40.2%
59.8%
Mercer
Hartman
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
5
(11 meetings)
6
5
Mercer
Hartman
Last 10: Mercer 5-5 Hartman
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Mercer
4
0
Mercer
Hartman
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hartman
0
1
Mercer
Hartman
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hartman
2
4
Mercer
Hartman
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Hartman
Edge
Even Strength
38.8% (263)
44.8% (830)
-6.0%
Power Play
35.3% (17)
47.8% (92)
-12.5%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (10)
37.5% (16)
+12.5%
On power play, Hartman has a +12.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hartman shoots right. Mercer is 44.0% vs right-shot opponents (100).
Mercer shoots right. Hartman is 44.7% vs right-shot opponents (284).
Home / Away
Mercer
Hartman
Home
34.7% (144)
45.0% (515)
Away
43.2% (146)
44.9% (423)
By Period
Mercer
Hartman
P1
32.7%
46.5%
P2
42.7%
39.9%
P3
42.2%
48.6%
Final 5 min
39.2%
43.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
39.0%
Hartman
54.0%▲
52.0%
45.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 2025 | 3 | 12:09 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |
| Oct 22, 2025 | 3 | 01:39 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Oct 22, 2025 | 2 | 06:08 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Oct 22, 2025 | 2 | 05:48 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Oct 22, 2025 | 1 | 16:21 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Oct 22, 2025 | 1 | 16:13 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Oct 22, 2025 | 1 | 12:25 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |
| Oct 22, 2025 | 1 | 12:13 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Oct 22, 2025 | 1 | 12:07 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |
| Oct 22, 2025 | 1 | 11:45 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |
| Oct 22, 2025 | 1 | 05:54 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |