Scouting Report
Ryan McLeod holds a +8.6% FO% edge overall. Look for McLeod on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Mercer wins 36.3% vs left-shot opponents — McLeod shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 41.8% vs McLeod 47.8% (-8.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mercer 72.2%
Defensive zone
McLeod 71.1%
Neutral zone
Mercer 56.6%
Result
Dawson Mercer favored at 62.2%
62.2%
37.8%
Mercer
McLeod
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Mercer
McLeod
Last 9: Mercer 4-5 McLeod
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
2
3
Mercer
McLeod
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
0
1
Mercer
McLeod
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Mercer
2
1
Mercer
McLeod
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
McLeod
Edge
Even Strength
38.8% (263)
49.2% (796)
-10.4%
Power Play
35.3% (17)
44.8% (87)
-9.5%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (10)
43.3% (263)
+6.7%
On even strength, McLeod has a +10.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McLeod shoots left. Mercer is 36.3% vs left-shot opponents (190).
Mercer shoots right. McLeod is 45.5% vs right-shot opponents (398).
Home / Away
Mercer
McLeod
Home
34.7% (144)
49.2% (575)
Away
43.2% (146)
45.9% (571)
By Period
Mercer
McLeod
P1
32.7%
52.8%
P2
42.7%
45.1%
P3
42.2%
45.6%
Final 5 min
39.2%
44.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
39.0%
McLeod
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 21, 2025 | 1 | 01:37 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 1 | 01:30 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 1 | 01:28 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 3 | 06:08 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 3 | 00:40 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 2 | 15:13 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 2 | 07:26 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 2 | 04:14 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 1 | 00:43 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |