Scouting Report
Ryan McLeod holds a +10.4% FO% edge overall. Look for McLeod on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 8 meetings). Mercer wins 39.0% vs left-shot opponents — McLeod shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 39.9% vs McLeod 49.6% (-10.4%)
H2H factor
McLeod leads 11-6 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
Mercer 80.8%
Defensive zone
Mercer 60.6%
Neutral zone
Mercer 73.5%
Result
Dawson Mercer favored at 76.2%
76.2%
23.8%
Mercer
McLeod
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
11
(17 meetings)
6
11
Mercer
McLeod
Last 10: Mercer 4-6 McLeod
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
2
6
Mercer
McLeod
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
0
1
Mercer
McLeod
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
4
4
Mercer
McLeod
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
McLeod
Edge
Even Strength
39.1% (1,412)
50.4% (3,345)
-11.3%
Power Play
41.1% (90)
51.0% (292)
-9.9%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (45)
44.3% (635)
-4.3%
On even strength, McLeod has a +11.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McLeod shoots left. Mercer is 39.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,099).
Mercer shoots right. McLeod is 49.3% vs right-shot opponents (1,490).
Home / Away
Mercer
McLeod
Home
40.0% (755)
50.2% (2,158)
Away
38.5% (792)
48.9% (2,114)
By Period
Mercer
McLeod
P1
38.2%
50.8%
P2
39.2%
48.4%
P3
41.1%
50.0%
OT
0.0%
37.1%
Final 5 min
39.6%
48.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
39.2%
McLeod
52.0%▬
51.5%
49.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 21, 2025 | 1 | 01:37 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 1 | 01:30 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 1 | 01:28 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 3 | 06:08 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 3 | 00:40 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 2 | 15:13 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 2 | 07:26 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 2 | 04:14 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 1 | 00:43 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Feb 2, 2025 | 2 | 12:26 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Feb 2, 2025 | 1 | 10:12 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Feb 2, 2025 | 1 | 07:05 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Feb 2, 2025 | 1 | 07:02 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Dec 10, 2023 | 1 | 19:04 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Dec 10, 2023 | 1 | 07:38 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Nov 21, 2022 | 1 | 02:25 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Dec 31, 2021 | 3 | 07:06 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |